Capital Commentary: 01-03-2026

In the fast-paced world of finance, where every decision can dramatically influence outcomes, The Numbers portfolio displayed a mixed bag of results in the past week, adding an intricate layer of narrative to the relentless pursuit of returns.

Among the trades, the standout performer was the long position in the Silver Trust iShares ETF, delivering an impressive 17.41% return. This sharp uptick can be attributed to a heightened interest in precious metals, often seen as a safe haven in uncertain economic climates. With inflationary concerns and central banks around the globe projecting potential policy shifts, investors seemed to flock towards silver, boosting the ETF and our portfolio accordingly. Such a robust move for silver-related investments suggests increasing demand due to geopolitical tensions or an unexpected shift in industrial demand.

In stark contrast, the Nasdaq QQQ Invesco ETF did not share the same fortune, closing the period with a slight loss of 0.30%. This minimal decline indicates the inherent volatility tech-heavy indices face, potentially driven by a wave of profit-taking in high-growth technology stocks or cautious sentiment around tech earnings and macroeconomic factors such as interest rates. Holding the QQQ represents a bet on technology’s continued dominance, but it appears this week’s tech landscape was shadowed by broader market apprehensions.

Similarly, the China Largecap iShares ETF presented a challenge, registering a 1.74% drop. This decline is likely reflective of the ongoing complexities in Chinese markets, influenced by regulatory crackdowns, concerns around the real estate sector, or tensions in international trade and diplomacy. While the long-term prospects of China’s economic machine remain enticing, short-term jitters seem to have unnerved investors, pulling the ETF’s performance downward.

Collectively, these trades culminated in a slight portfolio dip of 0.27%, yet stood resilient against the broader S&P 500, which fell by 0.68% over the same week. This relative outperformance of 0.41% underscores the strategic selections by The Numbers, alluding to a cautiously optimistic outlook amid market uncertainties.

Despite the mixed outcomes, it is worth noting that the portfolio’s success rate for trades was 43%, offering a silver lining that encapsulates the unpredictable nature of investing. Seeking successful trades in less than half of attempts yet still outperforming a major benchmark is a testament to careful selection and risk management.

As The Numbers navigates the ebb and flow of market trends, this past week serves as a reminder of the inherent risks and rewards in the ever-evolving financial landscape. Each trade, whether a soaring triumph or a plummet to the red, contributes valuable insights, shaping future strategies for long-term growth.

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