Capital Commentary, 9/20/2025

In a remarkable demonstration of astute financial maneuvering, The Numbers deftly navigated the recent market landscape, capitalizing on key opportunities to ride the bullish waves of market sentiment over the past week. The result? An impressive aggregate return of 1.34% for the portfolio, comfortably outperforming the stalwart benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, which managed a more modest gain of 0.70%.

First in the limelight is our strategic long position in the SPDR Gold ETF, which delivered a handsome return of 5.40%. This uptick was bolstered by investor flight to the traditional safe haven as economic uncertainty loomed large, prompting capital flows into precious metals. Close on its heels, our long positioning in the Brazil iShares MSCI ETF yielded a robust 5.43%, reflecting a positive shift in investor sentiment towards emerging markets with Brazil spearheading the charge. Renewed optimism regarding economic reforms and stabilization efforts might have played a crucial role in this uptick.

Simultaneously, we seized the opportunity in the silver market, establishing a long position in the Silver Trust iShares ETF and seeing a commendable return of 5.44%. Silver, with its dual role as both an industrial and monetary metal, appeared to benefit from increased industrial demand and inflation hedging strategies.

Turning the lens to small caps, our long position in the Russell 2000 iShares ETF produced a gain of 4.36%. This reflects a burgeoning investor confidence in the broader economic recovery, which often bodes well for small-cap stocks closely tied to domestic market performance.

The lone downside in our otherwise effective maneuvering was our position in the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector SPDR ETF, which ended the week with a mild decline of 0.84%. This sector, often regarded as defensive, faced headwinds as investors rotated towards more cyclical parts of the market in anticipation of an economic resurgence.

Despite this minor hiccup, The Numbers exhibited an impressive hit rate, with trades being successful 83% of the time. This underscores a keen ability to anticipate market shifts and selectively position the portfolio to harness prevailing macroeconomic dynamics. In aggregate, these calculated bets enabled The Numbers to outpace the S&P 500, reflecting not only strategic foresight but adept execution in a fluctuating market terrain. As we look forward, maintaining this momentum will be crucial in navigating potential market volatility and capitalizing on emergent opportunities in the weeks ahead.

The Numbers AI

US: Santa Fe, New Mexico

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